ADDIS ABABA/NAIROBI (ETHIOPIA/KENYA) – Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Monday dismissed allegations that the rebel troops in the northern region of Tigray, whom his federal army has been battling with for more than a month, have the ability to wage guerrilla war from the mountains.
Federal troops captured the rebel province’s capital Mekelle from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which used to rule the region, and declared an end to the hostilities
But TPLF leaders say they are fighting back on various fronts around Mekelle. Ethiopia experts fear a drawn-out insurgency with a destabilising impact around east Africa.
“The criminal clique pushed a patently false narrative that its fighters and supporters are battle-hardened and well-armed, posing the risk of protracted insurgency in the rugged mountains of Tigray,” Abiy said in a statement.
“It also claimed that it has managed to undertake strategic retreat with all its capability and regional government apparatus intact. The reality is the criminal clique is thoroughly defeated and in disarray, with insignificant capability to mount a protracted insurgency.”
The conflict, which has its roots in Abiy’s pushback against Tigrayans’ past dominance of federal government and military posts, is thought to have killed thousands of people.
It has also sent nearly 50,000 refugees fleeing to Sudan, seen TPLF rockets fired into Eritrea, stirred ethnic divisions, and led to the disarming of Tigrayans in Ethiopia’s peacekeeping contingency combating al Qaeda-linked militants in Somalia.
The United Nations and aid agencies are pressing for safe access to Tigray, which is home to more than 5 million people and where 600,000 relied on food aid even before the war.
However, two senior aid officials said over the weekend that looting and lawlessness meant the region was still too dangerous to dispatch convoys.
The government says that with peace restored, its priorities are the welfare of Tigrayans and return of refugees. However, some residents, diplomats and the TPLF say clashes persist, with protests and looting also reported in Mekelle on Friday.
The TPLF dominated government for nearly three decades, until Abiy took power in 2018 and began democratic reforms.
The party accuses him of seeking to centralise power at the expense of Ethiopia’s 10 regions and says Tigrayan officials were unfairly targeted in a crackdown on corruption and rights abuses. The government denies that and accuses TPLF leaders of treason for attacking federal forces in early November.