A candidate vying for mayor in one of most violent cities in Mexico met her demise on the inaugural day of her campaign, adding to the rising death toll in what experts anticipate as Mexico’s bloodiest elections ever.
Mayor candidate in Mexico Bertha Gisela Gaytán was fatally shot in a town just outside the city of Celaya, where she represented Morena, Mexico’s governing party. A video circulating on social media depicts a group of Morena activists and supporters marching through the streets before gunfire erupts.
Another casualty of the attack was Adrián Guerrero, a Morena candidate for the city council.
These tragic incidents mark the latest in a series of killings leading up to the elections on June 2, with at least 22 mayoral candidates slain since September 2023.
This surge in violence partly stems from the immense scale of the upcoming elections, slated to be the largest in Mexico’s history. These elections will determine the successor to President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, along with over 20,000 positions at federal, state, and municipal levels.
Celaya, situated in Guanajuato, frequently records more homicides than any other state in Mexico. Last year alone, sixty police officers lost their lives in the state.
The violence underscores the intense competition for territory and business among various organized crime factions.
Mere hours prior to her tragic death, Gaytán held a press briefing outlining her plans to combat corruption and enhance security in Celaya.
Data Cívica
Data Cívica, a research group monitoring political violence, reveals that roughly eight out of every ten attacks and murders occur at the municipal level.
“It’s at this level where organized crime can wield significant territorial influence,” explains Itxaro Arteta from Data Cívica. “Municipal governments control local budgets and the police – whether these forces are fulfilling their duties adequately or allowing certain activities to occur.”
Victims come from across the political spectrum, but attacks predominantly target challengers to the incumbent candidate. An analysis of assaults during the 2021 elections found this to be the case in 25 out of 32 killings.
Arteta adds, “When a party is already in power, there’s a likelihood – although we can’t be certain – of existing power arrangements [between local politicians and organized crime]. And when there’s a change in party, we often witness a spike in violence.”
Numerous challenges hinder the protection of candidates, ranging from the inefficiencies of local law enforcement to the fact that only a small fraction of these murders are preceded by threats.
The ongoing violence has made it difficult for parties to find willing candidates at the local level. Conversely, organized crime factions attempt to impose their preferred candidates on parties.
Data Cívica’s recent findings indicate a negative correlation between attacks on public servants and voter turnout.
“In the end, all of this significantly undermines democracy,” remarks Arteta. “It leaves citizens with little assurance about the individuals they are voting for – and whether these candidates will genuinely be able to govern without yielding to organized crime.”
