Projections show that the number of people living with major illnesses in England is set to rise nine times faster than the healthy working-age population. Posing a significant challenge for the NHS and public services, by 2040, nearly one in five individuals will have health conditions such as dementia and cancer, up from one in six in 2019.
The think tank’s report highlights the need for a radical shift in healthcare provision. Focusing on increased community care rather than relying heavily on hospitals. By 2040, an estimated 9.1 million people in England will be living with a major health condition. Representing a 37% increase from the data recorded in 2019. In contrast, the number of healthy working-age individuals is projected to rise by just 4%.
Global Challenge for Healthcare Systems
The primary driver behind this shift is the ageing population. But the report also points to an increase in young people living with illnesses. Anxiety, depression, chronic pain, and diabetes are expected to see significant rises. Notably, obesity emerges as one of the leading factors contributing to the surge in illnesses. More than offsetting the gains from reduced smoking rates and lower cholesterol levels.
Lead researcher Anita Charlesworth warns that addressing this challenge is not unique to the NHS, as countries worldwide face similar pressures. The ability to meet these challenges effectively will distinguish successful healthcare systems. As the growth in major health illnesses places additional demands on all sectors of the NHS. The impact is expected to extend well beyond healthcare, affecting other public services, the labour market, and the public finances.
While living with a major health condition may not necessarily exclude individuals from the workforce. It is anticipated that many will be limited in their ability to participate fully. Dr Layla McCay, from the NHS Confederation, which represents health managers, expresses concern over the projections, citing the increased pressure and demand on the NHS that these changes would generate.