LONDON (Reuters) – British Prime Minister Theresa May needs to win approval for her Brexit deal in parliament. But critics are lining up on all sides to say they will oppose it and the chances of the government winning a vote currently look slim.
So what happens if she loses the Dec. 11 vote?
By law, if the deal is rejected, ministers have 21 days to state how they intend to proceed. The government has previously said that if the agreement is rejected, Britain will leave the EU without a deal.
The reality is that the huge uncertainty in the world’s fifth largest economy and a likely adverse reaction of financial markets would necessitate a much quicker political reaction.
Below are some possible next steps:
May could resign as leader of the Conservative Party, triggering an internal contest to replace her without a general election. She has so far avoided answering questions on whether she would resign.
A long-running effort by some members of May’s own party to get rid of her could gain renewed impetus. If 48 out of 315 Conservative members of parliament want her to go, the party holds a confidence ballot. If she loses, there is a an internal contest to replace her without a general election.
The government could try to renegotiate the terms of the deal, seeking extra concessions from the EU, and then call a second vote asking MPs for their approval on amended terms. May and the EU have said the deal will not be reopened.
NO CONFIDENCE VOTE
The opposition Labour Party could call a confidence vote in the government, seeking to take control of the country without holding an election.
If a majority of MPs vote against May’s government, Labour would have 14 days to prove, by a vote, that it could command a majority in parliament and form its own government.
BACK TO THE BALLOT
If May’s government loses a confidence vote and Labour is unable to form a new government, an election is called. May could also call a general election herself if two-thirds of MPs in parliament agree to it. May has said that a general election is not in the national interest.
LONGER TERM OPTIONS:
The route to a second referendum on Brexit is unclear, but a vocal contingent of MPs in parliament support such a step. May has said she will not call a second referendum.
DELAY OR CANCEL BREXIT
The government could seek to extend the negotiating period with the EU to give it time to try to reach a better deal, hold a general election, or conduct a second referendum.
The government could also try to withdraw its notice of intention to leave the EU.
May has said she does not want to delay Britain’s exit from the EU, and will not revoke the notice of intention to leave.
(Reporting by William James; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Angus MacSwan)